Category Archives: Natural Gas

November Natural Gas Files

It’s been a long time since I published this but I’m going to try an make it a monthly thing from here out. The source is the EIA’s monthly data set for gas, which is generally released two months after the end of the month, so this November data was released at the end of January, and December data will be released at the end of February.

So what do we capture??…almost everything. There are 104 data series in the dashboard starting with the big guys…beginning and ending storage, monthly inflows and outflows and some calculated fields off of that like dailies and trailing 12 month averages etc… Then we pull in all of the components that add up…including state by state production and category by category consumption. In all honesty, it’s a bit too much data for one dashboard, but it still fits in a nice <1 MB excel file, so it seemed silly to split it up. The great thing about the dashboard is that all the data is in there, all you have to do is select whichever series you are interested in and the chart just pops up!!

 

I will kick it off with a nice chart that copies something I have been presenting in regards to oil comparing the trailing 12 month inflows to the trailing twelve month outflows.

Here we can see clearly that inflows surpassed outflows around the end of 2014, building the YOY inventories month by month. Fast forward two years and it looks like we are on the cusp with supply and demand just about coming back to balance. Digging in you would see that domestic production is declining, and curiously so is consumption.

One more for the road…here we have the trailing 12 month production from Texas slowly building before topping out mid 2015 and now declining at a rate of about 15% for over a year now.  For reference Texas is about 25% of US production so it will be interesting to see if this decline turns around in the next 6 months or so

I could go on forever…there are over 100 series and data goes back to the 1970’s for some of them. The dashboard gives you the flexibility to chart each for whatever time period you want, or even chart multiple series against each other. Enjoy!!…and let me know if there are any questions.

 

For the best experience download the excel file and open in your desktop version of Excel 2010 or newer. EIA_NATURAL_GAS_MASTER_FILE_11-2016

If you don’t have Excel or are running an older version, you can view the dashboard using the Excel Web App with the embedded copy below. You will likely want to click the icon in the bottom right corner for full screen, then adjust your browser zoom to fit.

Data Download: EIA Monthly Natural Gas Data Through July 2016

Just wanted to roll this new/updated file. We spend a lot of time each week looking at weekly data, but just for fun, take a step back and check out some of the EIA’s Monthly data. Supposedly, the monthly data is of better quality, but is generally a few months behind, making it not so useful for day trading, but still an interesting historical record.

The file has 103 series with data going back to the 70’s for a few of them. In all you have over 50,000 chartable data points including production by state in BCF, BCF/D, and Trailing 12 month BCF/Y. Also interesting is consumption by use, storage, prices, and of course my favorite, a reconciliation!! The great thing about dumping all of these series into a single pivot chart is that you can chart whatever you want, over whatever time period you want, compared to whatever other series you feel like. It is literally thousands of charts in one. That way you can pretty much ignore whatever I think is important and do your own unique research.

For the best usability, download the excel file here: EIA_Natural_Gas_Master_File. and open in your desktop version of Excel 2010 or better. I’m not going to post the excel web app version today…it’s a lot of extra steps that I’m not sure anyone actually uses. If you do…ping me and let me know so I can get a count of how many people prefer the Excel web app. Instead, here is a screenshot of just one of thousands (technically…it’s a lot more than that, but you get the idea) of possible charts you can create. Enjoy!!

eia_gas-july-2016

 

US Natural Gas Weekly Update (4-15-2016)

For the 16th week of 2016 ending 4/15/2016,US natural gas in storage increased by 7 BCF ending the week at 2,484. This build likely ends the winter withdrawal season with last weeks 3BCF draw coming 2 weeks later than 2015’s last draw for the week ending 3/27.

04-15-2016 Image B

The chart above shows us where inventories and price were for the sixteenth week of the year from 2010-2016. We can see a pretty clear correlation between price and ending inventory levels especially going back to 2012. The relationship is what you would expect…the higher the inventory, the lower the price. 2016 storage is currently 856 BCF ahead of where we were this time last year, which explains why natural gas prices have been stuck at or under the $2.00/MCF level for a few months now.

04-15-2016 Image C

If you are a domestic gas producer like CHK, the chart above provides a pretty good history lesson on how things got so bad, and perhaps a small glimmer of hope that has been developing over the last few weeks.  We started the year about 500 BCF over the prior year, but quickly jumped to a 1000 BCF year over year…triggering the price to fall back as low as $1.57/MCF in early March. To put 1,000 BCF in perspective, if domestic production has fallen about 2BCF/D, and consumption has increased 2BCF a day, just burning through a 1000 BCF surplus would take 250 days all else equal… just to get back to where we were a year ago with gas in the $2.50-$3.00/MCF range. That’s definitely a better price than  $1.57, but it could be too little too late for struggling producers like CHK. However, following the blue series in the chart above, we see a sharp turnaround with the 1,000 BCF YOY surplus being cut to 856 in just a few weeks and likely to be cut further in the weeks ahead as strong inventory builds in 2015 weeks 17 and 18 are unlikely to repeat. As I write this, gas prices have already broken through $2.20. Where they go from here will depend primarily on how fast domestic production actually declines and the weather as we close in on summer.

Interactive Excel Dashboard available for download here: Gas_Storage_Report (4-15-2016) (Works best with Excel 2010+)

To use the Dashboard within the excel web app embedded below, click the icon in the bottom right corner for full screen for full screen.